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THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE situation; Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris
Jan 15, 2022 | Climate Change, Feature 1, Lifestyle,

Politics The utility companies have thus far had little to say about the alarming cost projections to operate electric vehicles (EVs) or the increased rates that they will be required to charge their customers. It is not just the total amount of electricity required, but the transmission lines and fast charging capacity that must be built at existing filling stations. Neither wind nor solar can support any of it. Electric vehicles will never become the mainstream of transportation!

In part 1 of our exposé on the problems with electric vehicles (EVs), we showed that they were too expensive, too unreliable, rely on materials mined in China and other unfriendly countries, and require more electricity than the nation can afford. In this second part, we address other factors that will make any sensible reader avoid EVs like the plague.

EV CHARGING INSANITY In order to match the 2,000 cars that a typical filling station can service in a busy 12 hours, an EV charging station would require 600, 50-watt chargers at an estimated cost of $24 million and a supply of 30 megawatts of power from the grid. That is enough to power 20,000 homes. No one likely thinks about the fact that it can take 30 minutes to 8 hours to recharge a vehicle between empty or just topping off. What are the drivers doing during that time?

ICSC-Canada board member New Zealand-based consulting engineer Bryan Leyland describes why installing electric car charging stations in a city is impractical:
“If you’ve got cars coming into a petrol station, they would stay for an average of five minutes. If you’ve got cars coming into an electric charging station, they would be at least 30 minutes, possibly an hour, but let’s say its 30 minutes. So that’s six times the surface area to park the cars while they’re being charged. So, multiply every petrol station in a city by six. Where are you going to find the place to put them?”

The government of the United Kingdom is already starting to plan for power shortages caused by the charging of thousands of EVs. Starting in June 2022, the government will restrict the time of day you can charge your EV battery. To do this, they will employ smart meters that are programmed to automatically switch off EV charging in peak times to avoid potential blackouts.
In particular, the latest UK chargers will be pre-set to not function during 9-hours of peak loads, from 8 am to 11 am (3-hours), and 4 pm to 10 pm (6-hours). Unbelievably, the UK technology decides when and if an EV can be charged, and even allows EV batteries to be drained into the UK grid if required. Imagine charging your car all night only to discover in the morning that your battery is flat since the state took the power back. Better keep your gas-powered car as a reliable and immediately available backup! While EV charging will be an attractive source of revenue generation for the government, American citizens will be up in arms.

USED CAR MARKET
The average used EV will need a new battery before an owner can sell it, pricing them well above used internal combustion cars. The average age of an American car on the road is 12 years. A 12-year-old EV will be on its third battery. A Tesla battery typically costs $10,000 so there will not be many 12-year-old EVs on the road. Good luck trying to sell your used green fairy tale electric car! Tuomas Katainen, an enterprising Finish Tesla owner, had an imaginative solution to the battery replacement problem—he blew up his car! New York City-based Insider magazine reported (December 27, 2021): “The shop told him the faulty battery needed to be replaced, at a cost of about $22,000. In addition to the hefty fee, the work would need to be authorized by Tesla…Rather than shell out half the cost of a new Tesla to fix an old one, Katainen decided to do something different… The demolition experts from the YouTube channel Pommijätkät (Bomb Dudes) strapped 66 pounds of high explosives to the car and surrounded the area with slow-motion cameras…the 14 hotdog-shaped charges erupt into a blinding ball of fire, sending a massive shockwave rippling out from the car…The videos of the explosion have a combined 5 million views.” We understand that the standard Tesla warranty does not cover “damage resulting from intentional actions,” like blowing the car up for a YouTube video.

EVS PER BLOCK IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD
A home charging system for a Tesla requires a 75-amp service. The average house is equipped with 100-amp service. On most suburban streets the electrical infrastructure would be unable to carry more than three houses with a single Tesla. For half the homes on your block to have electric vehicles, the system would be wildly overloaded. LONG LIVE THE V-8!

BATTERIES
Although the modern lithium-ion battery is four times better than the old lead-acid battery, gasoline holds 80 times the energy density. The great lithium battery in your cell phone weighs less than an ounce while the Tesla battery weighs 1,000 pounds. And what do we get for this huge cost and weight? We get a car that is far less convenient and less useful than cars powered by internal combustion engines. Bryan Leyland explained why: “When the Model T came out, it was a dramatic improvement on the horse and cart. The electric car is a step backward into the equivalence of an ordinary car with a tiny petrol tank that takes half an hour to fill. It offers nothing in the way of convenience or extra facilities.”

OUR CONCLUSION
The electric automobile will always be around in a niche market likely never exceeding 10% of the cars on the road. All automobile manufacturers are investing in their output and all will be disappointed in their sales. Perhaps they know this and will manufacture just what they know they can sell. This is certainly not what President Biden or California Governor Newsom are planning for. However, for as long as the present government is in power, they will be pushing the electric car as another means to run our lives.

Drs. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris
Dr. Jay Lehr is a Senior Policy Analyst with the International Climate Science Coalition and former Science Director of The Heartland Institute. He is an internationally renowned scientist, author, and speaker who has testified before Congress on dozens of occasions on environmental issues and consulted with nearly every agency of the national government and many foreign countries. After graduating from Princeton University at the age of 20 with a degree in Geological Engineering, he received the nation’s first Ph.D. in Groundwater Hydrology from the University of Arizona. He later became executive director of the National Association of Groundwater Scientists and Engineers. Tom Harris is Executive Director of the Ottawa, Canada-based International Climate Science Coalition, and a policy advisor to The Heartland Institute. He has 40 years of experience as a mechanical engineer/project manager, science and technology communications professional, technical trainer, and S&T advisor to a former Opposition Senior Environment Critic in Canada’s Parliament.



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Like it or not, for better or worse, EVs are in our future. Not unlike cell phone technology there will be major advancements moving forward.

Speaking of phones. I think there's an old push button ATT wall phone in a box somewhere in my attic. It was old when we stopped using it. The original cost for the corded piece of Americana was in the $24.00 range. I'm sure it'd still work if I had a live outlet for it...

...ironically, in the past 10 years I've had 4 or so personal cell phones. Add my wife, daughter, the watches and tablets 😳 We're looking at at least a dozen devices and conservatively 8k 😬 That's just for the devices not considering the service fees, 😵‍💫

How cool is that 🤔 I'm going to go ahead and plan for a similar evolution of personal transportation ✌🏻
 

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The technology may be evolving at a fast pace, but the reasoning fragment of the human brain on how to utilize it without a major impact on the ecology and economy is not.
 

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Dream on.

The best part about EVs is it will limit liberal city dwellers from bothering rural America.

Batteries are already at their peak output, and can't tow a load past 170 miles in the new cyber trucks.

How many pull through trailer friendly Charging stations have you ever seen?
The Earth isn't flat. Neither are most highways.
Hills destroy EV range like staircases stop cripples.
There isnt any more power to be squeezed from Lion batteries.
Graphene tech is the future but is still decades away from any actual commercial application.
There are alot of people cheering on EVs that are just ignorant of the limits of battery tech.
Our infrastructure cant keep power on to homes in California during summer, and can't accomodate an entire state of people driving EVs.
 

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Our next vehicle will be a hybrid Toyota Sienna to replace our current Sienna for traveling.

When the time is right I'd like to get a battery powered truck to replace my Toyota Tundra. I don't drive my truck long distances so I think an EV will be a great fit. The Ford Lightening looks impressive. Orders are already filled for a couple years. Since I don't drive a great deal I'll probably charge via home solar and just keep it 'topped off' so to speak, rather than what I currently do which is waiting till my gas tank is getting low to visit a gas station. Charging at home via the grid will of course be something I'll have available, but I doubt I'd ever use a roadside charging station. Most all contractors I know don't leave the general area so a battery powered truck will well fit their purposes.

Handwringing over charging stations to replace gas stations is way overblown. Most folks use their cars to commute to work which will only require a portion of their battery capacity, and will recharge at home at night when electricity demand is otherwise low. Lots of places like work and school where folks leave their vehicle parked all day will have solar. A lot of folks will rarely if ever use a roadside charging station.

The problem with most thinking on this subject is the habit of waiting till your vehicle gas tank is low to visit a gas station, then imagining that's the way it will be for all EVs. OMG it will take hours sitting at a roadside charging station... but that's not the way it will be for most EV owners.

I can't drill an oil well or build a refinery at home, but I can install solar panels as well as tap into the grid at home. No need for a huge network of charging stations like we have gas stations. There will be a need, but a small fraction of the network we have now. Motels and restaurants will carry part of that load as well.

Most families have multiple cars. My guess is that an EV will be well suited to replace at least one.
 

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I am sure sticker shock will set in when EV users have to replace the batteries in their EV.
I think the costs will be coming down considerably over the next 10 or so years but will still be considerable. I won't be surprised to see battery upkeep/replacement built into the financing package. When my wife bought her Camry just prior to covid we went with the factory upkeep deal. I was frequently traveling for work and it wasn't terribly expensive so it worked for us. Another progressive option that's being used extensively already is leasing. I can see that being something that could be a big part of the changeover. Whatever the costs wind up being they're just going to be part of everyday life. Most people will pay.
 

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The price of EVs today reflects an immature industry with poor economies of scale.

Early in the flat panel days a 65in 720p TV started at $5,000.00. Today, a 65in 4k smart TV is $500 at Walmart. Vastly superior TV at 1/10th the price.

The transition to EVs will be considerably slower than optimists believe. Problems associated with the transition will be considerably less than pessimists believe.
 

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Another point is that battery efficiency decreases with temperature. On a below-zero day in the winter (a reality in the northern third of the country) your battery range will be about 1/3 of what you would get in the summer.
 

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The big 3 learned in the 1970s that there are 3 major hurdles to cross before EVs become a realistic option for 99% of drivers worldwide:

1. Battery efficiency-
The top tier batteries are Lion cells which are not up to the task, as they store much much less energy than Gas, and weigh much more.

2. Infrastructure -
It took half a century to establish fuel stations across the nation, and it will take decades to install proper charging stations, even if you solve the slow charging times.

3. Power grid-
Our power grid could not handle even 20% of our country switching to EVs.
See California's rolling summer brown outs as a stark reality check.


The big 3 only make them to get tax breaks and government incentives, which is also the main reason Tesla hasn't gone bankrupt.

It's a neat idea that might be the future..but it's not the immediate furure, unless these 3 things are actually sorted out (not leftist bullshit sorting).
 

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Then there is the question of where the electricity actually comes from. Burning coal or natural gas to charge an electric car is less efficient and releases more carbon than burning gasoline to do the same job. Until and unless all of our power generation is nuclear (in some form, doesn't need to be uranium fission) the whole EV's are green thing is just a bad joke.
 

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Then there is the question of where the electricity actually comes from. Burning coal or natural gas to charge an electric car is less efficient and releases more carbon than burning gasoline to do the same job. Until and unless all of our power generation is nuclear (in some form, doesn't need to be uranium fission) the whole EV's are green thing is just a bad joke.
EVs aren't green.
Wind and solar cant even power the lights at the gas station, much less charge multiple EVs one after the other, at an interatate exit.

It's all a hustle to get tax breaks and green grants/incentives from the .gov, sprikled with a small chunk of liberal idiot money from those that buy these golf carts.

Tesla performance?
Bwahahaha. 🤣
So when will they field a car at LeMans?
:unsure::oops::LOL:
 

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I think the costs will be coming down considerably over the next 10 or so years but will still be considerable. I won't be surprised to see battery upkeep/replacement built into the financing package. When my wife bought her Camry just prior to covid we went with the factory upkeep deal. I was frequently traveling for work and it wasn't terribly expensive so it worked for us. Another progressive option that's being used extensively already is leasing. I can see that being something that could be a big part of the changeover. Whatever the costs wind up being they're just going to be part of everyday life. Most people will pay.
The Ford Lightening regular 98kWh battery is rated for 230mi range which is more than enough for my needs. Electricity here is near 11cents kWh. A 'fill up' will cost around $11. My Tundra gets 17mpg, requiring about 13 gallons to go 230mi. At current $4 prices = $52.

New Level 3 charging will fully charge an 80kWh passenger car EV in about 30min, or charge from 20% to 80% in about 18 minutes. Charge times are being dramatically reduced.

Unlike the oil wells, refineries, tanker trucks, railroad, pipelines, ocean tankers and network of hundreds of thousands of fuel delivery stations which all had to begin from scratch to accommodate ICE autos, our electric grid infrastructure already exists. Heck, I already have 220volt 50amp outlets in my garage and basement shop. I just need the hardware and cable and I'll be good to go. Our electric company has a ton off excess capacity at night, and 9 months of the year homeowners electricity demand is dramatically less. Summer is high demand months for A/C which just happens to be the best months for solar. There's a lot of synergies. Hell, our population here has grown a stunning 30% since 2010. Power company has kept up with demand just fine. So the notion that as EVs are gradually added that it will overwhelm power companies is just naysayers naysaying. That said, a state like California is their own worst enemy when it comes to power generation but that's a story of stupid.

EV naysayers will soon be the new buggy whip boys and farriers of the 21st century.
 

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This is like owning an airplane.

For every mile/hour of operation, you MUST set aside an account for mechanical parts and installation.

Factor in $10,000 very 4-5 years for batteries.

Smart track would be, being able to charge it autonomously (off grid).
I can store a years worth of diesel, you can't store a years worth of electrons.

But there is always a tech answer...
Wheel Tire Car Vehicle Automotive tail & brake light


Tow a diesel generator!
 

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Not that many electric cages in Taiwan but lots of electric scooters. Gogoro has over 2000 electric battery swapping stations in Taiwan now; almost as many a gas stations. You just pull up to one, take out your 2 depleting batteries, stick them in two empty holes in the station and grab to more and go.
 

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The Ford Lightening regular 98kWh battery is rated for 230mi range which is more than enough for my needs. Electricity here is near 11cents kWh. A 'fill up' will cost around $11. My Tundra gets 17mpg, requiring about 13 gallons to go 230mi. At current $4 prices = $52.

New Level 3 charging will fully charge an 80kWh passenger car EV in about 30min, or charge from 20% to 80% in about 18 minutes. Charge times are being dramatically reduced.

Unlike the oil wells, refineries, tanker trucks, railroad, pipelines, ocean tankers and network of hundreds of thousands of fuel delivery stations which all had to begin from scratch to accommodate ICE autos, our electric grid infrastructure already exists. Heck, I already have 220volt 50amp outlets in my garage and basement shop. I just need the hardware and cable and I'll be good to go. Our electric company has a ton off excess capacity at night, and 9 months of the year homeowners electricity demand is dramatically less. Summer is high demand months for A/C which just happens to be the best months for solar. There's a lot of synergies. Hell, our population here has grown a stunning 30% since 2010. Power company has kept up with demand just fine. So the notion that as EVs are gradually added that it will overwhelm power companies is just naysayers naysaying. That said, a state like California is their own worst enemy when it comes to power generation but that's a story of stupid.

EV naysayers will soon be the new buggy whip boys and farriers of the 21st century.
I take it you don't tow with your truck?
10,000 lbs and a hill or two will cut that 230 down to around 80 miles.
Then we can laugh at you from our ICE trucks while you are trying to find a charging station that you can pull through with your trailer attached.

I get 300 + miles from my 20 year old work suburban while towing 10,000 lbs, and can refill the tank in less than 4 minutes at any gas station in the country.
How many times do you think you can recharge a $10,000 lion battery pack before it starts losing capacity? (After 100 or so cycles 18650s start to diminish.)
EVs will eventually be the future, but in the real world, they arent viable beyond local city cruising, and they cant hold a candle to an ICE vehicle for real world work.
 
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